Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Newest N. C. poll: McCain +20

ABC11-WTVD is reporting - - -

In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina Tuesday, September 09, Republican John McCain suddenly and breathtakingly surges to a 20-point win over Democrat Barack Obama, 58% to 38%, according to this latest exclusive SurveyUSA election poll conducted for ABC11-WTVD.

In 3 previous SurveyUSA NC tracking polls, McCain had led by 8, 5, and 4 points. Today: 20. McCain has gained ground in every demographic group. Among men, McCain led by 9 last month, 27 today. Among women, Obama led by 2 last month, trails by 12 today. McCain holds 9 of 10 Republican voters; Obama holds 3 of 4 Democratic voters; independents, who were split last month, break today crisply for McCain, where, in the blink of an eye, he is up by 25.

The following was asked of 671 likely voters (more data on collection listed at the bottom):

  • If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?

    58% McCain (R)
    38% Obama (D)
    2% Other
    2% Undecided

The Results of a SurveyUSA Election Poll
Geography Surveyed: North Carolina
Data Collected: 09/06/2008 - 09/08/2008

McCain is now in front among the educated and less educated, among the affluent and less affluent. He's polling at 64% in Coastal Carolina (up from 57%), at 60% in Charlotte (up from 53%), and at 54% in Raleigh / Greensboro (up from 44%). Pro-Life voters backed McCain 2:1 last month, 4:1 this month.

The rest of the story’s here.

I’ll say more about this poll and the presidential race in North Carolina tonight.

Just want to get this newest poll news to you now.


Anonymous said...

Holy. Crap.

Be interesting to see if this holds or widens. I suspect a LOT of the so-called new voters for BHO will just start staying at home and not answering polls....

Wonder how many other "toss up" states just went bright red?

"Red Means Go" - old Duke fans will get it.


Anonymous said...

I think you might want to visit the News and Observer's Editors' blog and the Zane blog today.

Anonymous said...

John -

Hate to rain on your parade, but all this may be is a post-convention bounce. Obviously, I would be wrong if it can be sustained.

Jack in Silver Spring

Anonymous said...

I believe that NC will stay red and that McPalin will not have to use too many resources here to hold the state. McCain won't win by 20 points but I would expect a solid win.

The people who are really sweating are probably the Dem women running for Senate and Gov. The Gov candidate, Beverly Perdue, should be sweating. I heard a debate on WUNC this evening between Perdue and McCrory and he sounded far sharper. I don't know if this was televised and how it came off on TV if it was, but it sounded like she is not ready for prime time. I have not paid attention to this race (although I should) but, if I had to decide just on this debate, I would not hesitate to vote for the mayor of Charlotte.

Anyone else see or hear this? What's your take?

Anonymous said...

I think polls based on "most likely voters" may be wrong this year.

During the primary, people stood in line for hours to vote for Obama.

And Obama's campaign is very well organized, and will intend to turn out 100% of the vote.

McCain supporters could end up looking like the hare after the tortoise beats them over the finish line, if they put too much credence in polls.