Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Rove’s call: Obama 338 – McCain 200

Karl Rove’s final calls on all 50 states and DC give it to Sen. Obama.

You can view Rove’s map of the Red and Blue states and DC here.

WaPo’s political blog The Trail has a “blowout” headline followed by a more measured post. Here’s its closing paragraphs:

…According to the final 2008 polling map posted on the Rove & Co. website, Obama will take a wide swath of tossup and red states, including Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.

The former Bush political adviser predicts McCain will hold on to North Carolina, Florida, Missouri and his home state of Arizona. Obama, according to the Rove map, will win easily by 10 points in Pennsylvania, where McCain has poured significant resources and campaign time.

Many of Obama's victories in red states will be won by 5 points or more, according to Rove's map, including Ohio (5 percent); Virginia (7 percent); Colorado (6 percent) and Nevada (7 percent).

Several of McCain's wins will be nail-biters by comparison, including Indiana (1 percent) and Missouri and North Carolina (less than 1 percent each).

As recently as mid-October, Rove had said that Obama had not yet "closed the sale" with voters.

On Fox News Sunday, Rove acknowledged that McCain has a "very steep uphill climb," but also said that "right now people are playing the game of sort of trying to settle the race before it's over."

"In the close states, the last poll that matters is the one in which everybody gets to cast their ballot and not wait for the phone solicitor," Rove said.
The WSJ has a story on Rove’s forecasts here.