About an hour ago at his eponymous blog, Michael Barone posted “National Polls Favor Obama, State Polls Trend Toward McCain”:
Looking at the latest polls on the morning of Election Day, I see two contrary trends. On the one hand, the national polls seem to be trending toward Barack Obama. On the other, polls in seven battleground states with 114 electoral votes—Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania—seem to be trending over the last several days toward John McCain.Barone’s one of the best voter analysts out there, but I wish he’d said more by way of explanation for the conflicting national and state poll trends.
Possible explanation: In the past week, there has been something closer to parity between the campaigns in ad saturation compared with earlier weeks, when the Obama campaign was far outspending the McCain campaign.
How does McCain’s increased spending bringing him closer to parity with Obama’s spending explain the contrary state and national poll movements?
UPDATE: Be sure to read the comment thread.