Saturday, May 03, 2008

NC’s Dems’ Pres primary: what’s happening?

Let’s look at excerpts for today’s NY Times's report of the NC Democratic presidential primary to be held May 6. I'll intersperse some reporting and comments.

NYT’ excerpts are in italics; my reporting and commentary are in plain.

The NYT begins - - -

Not long ago, Mr. Obama was perceived to hold such an advantage that some Democrats here wondered whether Mrs. Clinton would bother to compete vigorously. But the candidates intensified their efforts in the final weekend — both appeared here on Friday evening — and Mr. Obama was eyeing a return on the eve of the election.

“This primary election on Tuesday is a game changer,” Mrs. Clinton told a crowd in Kinston. “This is going to make a huge difference in what happens going forward. The entire country — probably even a lot of the world — is looking to see what North Carolina decides.”

One of the surest signs a candidate thinks she/he can improve her/his standing in a state in the closing days of a campaign is how much time they spend there. With a must win race in Indiana Sen. Clinton is spending time here today and will be here tomorrow. I’m also hearing she may be here again on Monday.

Her commitment of time her is a sure sign her internal polling is telling not only that she’s closing the gap but that a lot of undecidedes are learning her way and with some high-energy, high-visibilty campaigning in the Old North State she can cut into Obama’s lead.

While a more vigorous fight is under way in Indiana, which also holds its primary election on Tuesday, supporters of both candidates agreed that the race here had taken on new urgency. Mr. Obama held a single-digit lead in several polls, which have narrowed in the last two weeks.

I did something with the polls results I’ve not seen anyone else do.

I want to and its page for NC Dem pres. primary poll results.

I calculated the average all 10 polls RCP lists in which all voter preferences were calculated based on results obtained beginning Apr. 1 and ending 4/28, the day before Sen. Obama forcefully denounced Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s National Press Club comments.

The “oldest” of the 10 polls in terms of data gathering is a Rasmussen poll reporting data collected 4/3. Obama had a 23-point lead.

The most recent of the 10 is Survey USA’s which reported dated collected from 4/26 to 28 and a 9-point lead for Obama.

The average of all 10 polls is a 17-point lead for Obama over Clinton.

I then average the 7 polls RCP lists as of today at 2 PM ET which have collected data beginning on 4/29, the day Obama denounced Wright’s remarks, up through yesterday, 5/2.

The average of those 7 polls is a 7.3-point lead for Obama.

Before arriving in North Carolina on Friday evening, Mr. Obama told reporters: “We’ve had a rough couple of weeks. I won’t deny that.”

We can all agree with the Senator about that.

But at the state Democratic Party’s Jefferson-Jackson dinner here, the cavernous room exploded with energy when Mr. Obama walked onto the stage after Mrs. Clinton, who received a rousing, yet far more tepid, reception. …

Folks, since lapel pins have been an issue in this campaign I’ll tell you as a NC-based blogger that if you’d showed up at the dinner with a Confederate flag lapel pin there would have been comments at least.

On the other hand, I doubt too many objected that the Dems’ dinner honored two of their iconic figures – Presidents Jefferson and Jackson – slaveholders both.

It’s an interesting world.

Many voters in the state were just beginning to turn their attention to the Democratic primary at the very moment Mr. Obama’s glow was dimming. Tuning in to their televisions, they saw a candidate who bristled his way through a debate last month in Pennsylvania and, more recently, an incessant repetition of incendiary statements by his longtime pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., with whom Mr. Obama has now broken. …

About what the Times calls “incendiary statements.” An awful lot of us in North Carolina are calling them racist and anti-American.

And weren’t those “statements” what the Times was telling us just days ago were “snippets taken out of context?”

Advisers to Mr. Obama concede he lost support among some white voters in the wake of the storm surrounding Mr. Wright. Since then, the campaign has sought to increase its appeal to white voters. At Mr. Obama’s first stop in the state on Friday, a rally in Charlotte, most seats in the Cricket Arena were filled with black supporters. Yet many of the seats directly behind Mr. Obama — in the view of news cameras — were filled by white supporters. ...

So that’s how the staff of the “post-racial” candidate arranged the seating.

But who’s really surprised? The only thing that surprises me is the Times reported it. For that I give the NYT a hat tip.

The entire Times story's here.

Folks, there more I want to comment on in the Times story which you can read in full here.

I’ll be back this evening.


Anonymous said...

Should be a most interesting convention in Denver. Heh heh.
Tarheel Hawkeye

Anonymous said...

Whatever happened to the NYTimes' Duff?

Anonymous said...

John -

The Democrats, with their politics of identity and their method for choosing a Presidential candidate, have gotten themselves into a real pickle. Imagine if Mrs. Clinton comes into the convention with a majority of the popular vote and Obama (who I think is becoming unelectable) comes in with a majority of the delegates. Moreover, should the Democrats not choose Obama, they face the real risk of having Americans of African descent stay home on election day. Tarheel Hawkeye is absolutely right. It should be a most interesting convention in Denver.

Jack in Silver Spring

Archer05 said...

Barack Obama defeated Hillary Rodham Clinton by [seven] votes in the Guam Democratic presidential caucuses Saturday. Seven votes! No landslide there.

The adoring crowds are dwindling it would seem. Part of the Obama magic may have gone ‘Wright’ down the drain. There is nothing he can say to undo the damage.

Archer05 said...

NYT: Suddenly, North Carolina Is Facing Tighter Race

“….in Charlotte, most seats in the Cricket Arena were filled with black supporters. Yet many of the seats directly behind Mr. Obama — in the view of news cameras — were filled by white supporters.”
Remember, “White people, get me white people” not long ago? Making Blacks go to the back, if anyone else did that, there would be no end to the racism rhetoric.

Time for a Dean Scream!