Monday, April 21, 2008

Barone on Pa. primary

Michael Barone in today's WSJ concludes his analysis of factors influencing the Democratic presidential primary with this:

Pennsylvania's demography – elderly, downscale, Catholic – clearly favors Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary. Her full-throated though occasionally overfrank support from Mr. Rendell helps her in his core constituency, the Philadelphia suburbs, which were favorably impressed by his record as Philadelphia mayor from 1991 to 1999 (the city, half black, will presumably vote for Barack Obama).

Western Pennsylvania, much like northeast Ohio but with fewer blacks, and the "T" – the area between the two metro areas plus the whole northern geographic half of the state – should be a piece of cake for her.

Polls tend to show Mrs. Clinton running stronger in Pennsylvania against John McCain than Mr. Obama. And the latter's comments that "bitter" voters in small towns will "cling" to "guns and religion" will probably not help him. It undercuts Mr. Obama's claim that he will be a stronger candidate in the general election.

Mrs. Clinton will claim that her primary victory (if it turns out to be that) in the nation's sixth largest state shows that she is the choice of the people – especially the white working class which has been the bedrock constituency of the Democratic Party since the 1930s. But the white working class is steadily declining as a Democratic constituency.

The demographic composition of the Pennsylvania electorate, which makes it more typical of the America of the 1950s than the America of today, means that its presidential value is limited to its 21 electoral votes (down from its peak of 38 in 1912-1928).

Pennsylvanians have kept quiet during most of our history. But they will make some noise when they vote tomorrow – and may make more difference than they have since the days of James Buchanan and Benjamin Franklin.
Barone’s entire column is here.

It’s a great column filled with interesting social, economic and political information as regards both Pennsylvania’s past and present.

Don’t miss it.

Hat tip:


Archer05 said...

On the web: Obama gets more help?

Quote: “Carter Says Obama Strongly Supported Around The World.”
“Does he [Carter] mean supported by Hamas, Ahmadinejad , Al Qaeda, Chavez, Ortega, Castro, and the other warm and fuzzy leaders he admires?”

That is not amusing to me, it bears serious thought.

justice58 said...

Barack Obama is a good man & good for this country!

Pennsylvania will show you! ;)

Archer05 said...

Senator Obama canceled his appearance at a debate in North Carolina. Many think he has been whining that the press asked him hard questions.

Senator Clinton wants the debate. Say what you will, this looks like an act of cowardice to me.

So he doesn’t like the questions?
As a voter, I really don’t care what he likes, it’s what I like, and need to know.

Ducking questions won’t win him any votes beyond his committed group, and that won’t be enough, in my opinion. I am an Independent voter, and my group often decides who wins.

justice58 said...

Barack doesn't need ANY more debates! Enough of that! He needs to connect with the voters and not give broke Hillary free press time!

After that debacle of a disgraceful debate ABC did, who in their right mind would even think about it! Are you kidding!

If you don't like him---don't vote for him! There are 2 other candidates out there :)