Sunday, September 14, 2008

McCain will carry N. C. by at least 10 points comments

I want to respond to comments on the thread of last Wednesday’s post: McCain will carry N. C. by at least 10 points.

But first an update on poll results published after my post.

At (this page) you see results for and links to three polls of N.C. presidential voter preference. All three polls have McCanin ahead. ( +3, +4, and +17).

Now part or all of thread comments are in italics; my responses are in plain.

Anon @ 3:15 - -

John, I would agree with your assessment and the 10 point estimate.

I would expect BHO to mostly pull out as the election tightens. He needs to spend his money in VA, NM, NV and other states that might be in play for a red-to-blue switch.

Sen. Obama has so much money that, even if it’s clear by say mid-October , he doesn’t have a chance here, he’s likely to continue spending money in N.C. to, among other things, help Dem candidates further down the ballot.

If he had a realistic crack at NC, he would already be looking at a 400+ vote Electoral College win anyway.

I agree.

The more interesting issue is the impact for [Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Beverly] Perdue and [Senatorial candidate Kay ] Hagan. They don't exactly want to hang around with The One if he comes to NC, but they would love to see him do well so they can get some down-ticket benefit.

Again, I agree

Anon @ 11:41 - -

My thoughts are you put up a great post and I can't wait to read more.

I appreciate your nice words.

I’ll have a second post up within a day or two. It will explain why I think Obama’s friend, terrorist Will Ayers, and Obama’s pastor and mentor of almost 20 years, the racist, anti-American Jeremiah Wright, will hurt Obama in N. C. more than in many other states.

I’ll also suggest how I think the GOP can help voters understand how enormously revealing Obama’s relationships with those two men is.

NeCle - -

John, if the 10% point margin is correct, then that should ensure that Ms. Dole trounces the Greensboro liberal. Ms. Hagan will be a reliable constituent of Senator Reid and vote the party line every time, guaranteed.

IMO you’ve put your finger on the most powerful argument Sen. Dole’s supporters can use: don’t send the liberal Hagen to Washington to work with all the other liberals already there.

Since she’s a sitting, Senator Dole needs to make the case for what she’s done and will continue to do. She can mention Hagen’s a liberal, but Dole needs to low-key that.

For Dole’s supporters, however, “Hagen’s a liberal like John Edwards turned out to be and she’ll vote with Sens. Reid and Kerry’ ought to be the default line.

As I said in my first post, one of the principal reasons Obama will lose N.C. is that Tar Heel voters – most of them anyway – don’t like to send liberals to Washington.

Thank you all for your comments.