A “tied” race and “the enthusiasm gap:”

Both Gallup and Rasmussen poll findings now show the race between Sens. McCain and Obama a statistical tie.

That will change many times between now and November. One factor that'll influence those changes and the final citizens’ vote that matters most concerns “the enthusiasm gap.”

Here’s some of what Stephen Hayes in The Weekly Standard has to say about it. My comments follow below the star line.

… Then McCain grew serious. "I have to say, and I don't mean to disappoint you, but I haven't changed positions." He defended his vote against the Bush tax cuts and, at some length, reiterated his concerns about global warming.

Later, he went out of his way to emphasize his respect for Hillary Clinton and boast about his work with Democrats Joe Lieberman, Russ Feingold, and Ted Kennedy.

This is McCain being McCain. He clearly believes that bipartisanship is among the highest virtues of political life. But it also reflects the campaign's strategic attempt to position McCain as a centrist in order to win the votes of independents and even some Democrats.

There are risks to this strategy and the enthusiasm gap is chief among them.

A Washington Post/ABC News poll last month found that nearly half of the liberals surveyed are enthusiastic about supporting Barack Obama, while only 13 percent of conservatives are enthusiastic about McCain. More generally, 91 percent of self-identified Obama supporters are "enthusiastic" about their candidate; 54 percent say they are "very enthusiastic." Seventy-three percent of such McCain supporters say they are "enthusiastic" about his candidacy, but only 17 percent say they are "very enthusiastic."

A USA Today/Gallup poll reported similar findings last week. That survey shows that while 67 percent of Barack Obama's supporters are "more excited than usual about voting" for their candidate, only 31 percent of John McCain's supporters can say the same thing.

More troubling for the McCain campaign is that more than half of those who identified themselves as McCain backers--54 percent--say they are "less excited than usual" about their candidate.

It is not surprising that conservatives are not warming to a candidate who likes to talk about climate change and government subsidies for displaced workers. But this coldness is increasingly alarming to some McCain backers. They believe that all of McCain's efforts to win over Democrats and independents can only pay off if he is able to get conservatives to turn out to vote for him in November. …

Hayes’ entire article’s here.
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Comments:

I think Sen. McCain can overcome “the enthusiasm gap” and rally conservatives because, among other things, he’s sure to get a “helping hand” from Sen. Obama and some of his surrogates, such as Gen. Wes Clark.

Can conservatives (or anyone for that matter) really be sure of what Obama’s true position is on FISA legislation he first promised to filibuster and then voted for?
When Clark and others denigrate McCain’s military service, they only help him with conservatives.

As Election Day draws nearer, Obama’s shifting and contradictory pronouncements on the war in Iraq, his lack of experience, his close, long-time associations with racists and far left anti-Americans, and whom he might appointment as federal judges will loom large with conservatives.

McCain has a good chance of at least shrinking “the enthusiasm gap” among conservatives, without having to do anything which could cost him support among Reagan Democrats and Independents.

Back to those Gallup and Rasmussen polls.

Suppose there isn’t much voter attitude change between now and November; or that what changes there are for each candidate tend to cancel each other in terms of benefiting either candidate except among conservatives, who by election day are markedly more enthusiastic for McCain.

In that case, the pundits now thinking how they’ll report “President-elect Obama’s historic victory” may have to do quick rewrites come Election Night.

Hat tip: Realclearpolitics.com