Thursday, April 17, 2008

Zogby’s latest Pa. poll & the beer question

Zogby’s latest Pa. polling report begins - - -

With just five days left before Democratic primary voters go to polls to decide who they want to be their presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois are locked in a battle that is too close to call, the latest Newsmax/Zogby telephone poll shows.

The survey, which was conducted April 15-16, 2008 and came out of the field midway through Wednesday's contentious debate between the two candidates in Philadelphia, shows Clinton at 45% and Obama at 44%, with 12% either wanting someone else or left undecided. …

After reporting the numbers, John Zogby provided his analysis. Parts of it follow in italics; then come my comments in plain.

"This is not a year for negative campaigning and Clinton's pounding of Obama on his controversial description of small town voters in Pennsylvania does not seem to be working.

"Obama leads in the Philadelphia and eastern part of the Commonwealth, among African Americans, and Very Liberal Pennsylvanians. He also has a slight lead among voters in union households and has an 18 point margin over those who have lost a job.

"Clinton maintains her lead among whites, Catholics, Liberals, and Hispanics.

"The gender gap is huge with Obama leading among men by 15 and Clinton leading among women by 15. But Clinton holds a wide advantage on the question of understanding Pennsylvania (58%-27%) and handling the economy of the country (47%-38%). She also is ahead in understanding the personal financial situation of individuals (41%-35%).

"On the other hand, Pennsylvanians by a two to one margin (60% to 29%) are more likely to agree with supporters of Obama that voters in Pennsylvania are bitter about their economic situation than with Clinton and critics of Obama that he is an elitist who does not understand working people.

"On the key questions of who they would rather have a beer with: Clinton 38%, Obama 39%—with 15% undecided.

Zogby's entire report is here.

The beer question!

I don’t take it too seriously. After all, are the 15% undecideds that way because they can’t make up their minds which of the candidates they’d rather have a beer with or are they just not sure they want a beer with anyone?

Maybe they’re all single malt drinkers.

Zogby doesn't say.

Moving on, there’s one serious use we can all make of the beer question.

It should remind us that when we hear pundits talk about the impact Sen. Obama’s “cling to bitter” remarks have had on voters in Pa., the election next week will only give us some sense of how the remarks may have affected Dem primary voters given only a choice between Obama and Sen. Clinton.

We won’t know from the Pa. primary results how Obama’s remarks may be affecting Republicans and Independents in Pa.

And we won’t know how they may affect the American electorate in November should Obama, as many think, be the Dems’ nominee.



Anonymous said...

Zogby’s bias in favor of Obama is as predictable as any Irishman’s bias against Britain.

justice58 said...

Geez, I can't say it enough!

Barack will be the Democratic Nominee! And in November 2008 will become our next President of the United States!

It's simple---people love him & Michelle

Anonymous said...

Dream on Justice58. McCain will be elected president in November and Dems will only have Obama to blame for the loss of the White House. Barack is a fake and a big liar. You know it, I know it, everybody knows it.