John Keegan is an outstanding historian. He’s also a superb military analyst. In the London Telegraph he predicts :
There will soon be another war in the Middle East, this time a renewal of the conflict between the Israel Defence Force (IDF) and Hizbollah.You can read Keegan’s entire analysis here.
The conflict is inevitable and unavoidable. It will come about because Israel cannot tolerate the rebuilding of Hizbollah's fortified zone in south Lebanon, from which last year it launched its missile bombardment of northern Israel.
Hizbollah has now reconstructed the fortified zone and is replenishing its stocks of missiles there. Hamas is also creating a fortified zone in the Gaza Strip and building up its stocks of missiles. Israel, therefore, faces missile attack on two fronts. When the Israel general staff decides the threat has become intolerable, it will strike. […]
The big question hanging over an Israeli return to south Lebanon is whether that would provoke a war with Syria, Lebanon's Arab protector. The answer is quite possibly yes, but that such an extension of hostilities might prove welcome both to Israel and to the United States, which regards Syria as Iran's advanced post on the Mediterranean shore.
What is certain is that – probably before the year is out – Israel will have struck at Hizbollah in south Lebanon. And the strike will come even sooner if Hizbollah reopens its missile bombardment of northern Israel from its underground systems.
1 comments:
I know nothing about Mr. Keegan. I am willing to accept the assessment that he is top drawer.
However, I must point out, it didn't take a genius to see this coming. Anybody with a thought process of any level could have predicted this.
If Israel is to survive they must ignore pleas and opinions of the world and really totally destroy their next attackers and backers.
Else the constant attrition and depletion of their resources must eventually erode their ability to defend themselves.
Complete destruction of their next enemy will not free them from conflict. However, if their victory is complete enough, the leadership of that enemy will be replaced. Other enemies' leadership seeing this will be less enthusiastic about advancing against Israel if they believe their hold on their own personal power is at risk. History has borne this out.
Every defeat the muslims in the Middle East suffer that does not end with their total dismemberment is painted as a victory in the muslim world and they just try again. The only times of respite have been when the leadership lost its power. The next guy has always then been much more timid, until such time as they think they can survive in their position win or lose.
Limited war plays into their hands. They will sacrifice anyone and anything, except their hold on power. They only lose that when the defeat is so harsh and horrible that even the imams cannot spin it into any kind of victory. The Lebanese and Hezbollah situation did not result in an internal weakening of their grasp on power, ergo, it is no stretch to predict their losses were not, from their point of view, prohibitive.
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