Gallup’s response raises serious doubts

For the first time I'm asking myself whether The Gallup Organization, in a least one important poll report, hasn’t fallen short of the high standards of fairness and accuracy for which it is so admired.

On Sept. 15 I posted: Gallup's reporting raises questions

I described a report at Gallup’s web site that caught my attention.

Its headlines: Blacks Blast Bush for Katrina Response
Most believe racism was responsible for delays in providing relief

Gallup had polled a biracial sample of blacks and whites but its headlines gave no hint of that.

I was also troubled by Gallup's statement that led its second paragraph:

Aside from Bush, whites and blacks have similar perspectives on how various entities handled themselves in the Hurricane Katrina disaster.

because the statement was directly contradicted by a number of Gallup's findings reported well down in the report. For example, whites were more than twice as likely as blacks to have a negative opinion of New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin.

I decided to send Dr. Frank Newport, Editor-in-Chief of The Gallup Organization, a link to my post and invite him to respond. I promised to publish in full his response.

I received the following email from The Gallup Poll’s Senior Editor, Lydia K. Saad. Saad wrote the poll report.

Dear John,

I've had a chance to read your analysis of my 9/14 news story entitled Blacks Blast Bush for Katrina.
http://johninnorthcarolina.blogspot.com/2005/09/gallups-reporting-raises-questions.html

You contend that a predictable finding on race is therefore not newsworthy. I would contend that these findings were not entirely predictable, and that even if they do conform with a larger pattern in black attitudes, that pattern -- whereby whites and blacks see racial issues quite differently -- is an enduring and important fact of U.S. politics and society. Documenting the extent to which the racial-gap exists on specific issues -- particularly new ones as they arise -- continually adds to our understanding of race relations and the larger culture.

We conducted an oversample of black interviews specifically to enable us to measure and report the views of blacks, and to contrast these with whites. I would not have been able to guess at the outset that nearly 2 in 3 blacks would attribute the government's response to racism, or that the overwhelming majority of blacks would disapprove of Bush's recent handling of the disaster, not just his initial handling. The results we got came in at what I perceived as the outer edge of the anti-Bush continuum.

Thank you for your interest in and attention to the Gallup Poll.

Lydia Saad

Lydia K. Saad
Senior Editor, The Gallup Poll
502 Carnegie Center, Suite 300
Princeton, NJ 08540
(609) 924-9600
lydia_saad@gallup.com

I replied today with the following email and a link to this post:

Dear Lydia,

Thank you for responding to my Sept. 15 post. I've published your response in full, preceded by some background for readers new to this matter.

You say I “contend that a predictable finding on race is therefore not newsworthy.”

You’re wrong. Nowhere do I make that contention. Please take another look at my post here.

I did ask:

Why did Gallup decide to headline: Blacks Blast Bush for Katrina Response? Haven’t blacks, by percentages sometimes in the 90's, been blasting Bush for years for just about everything he’s said or done? What’s headline-worthy about them blasting him for his Katrina response?

Surely that can’t be stretched into a contention that “a predictable finding on race is therefore not newsworthy,” can it?

I pointed out:

Gallup’s own polling finds no statistically significant difference from pre-Katrina levels in blacks’ approval of the President or their favorable view of the Republican Party. Those are important findings given all that's been said these past few weeks.

That led to a reasonable question:

Why didn’t Gallup think them worth a headline or at least a mention in one of the first few paragraphs?

You offer no answer to that question, Lydia.

Nor do you answer my question regarding why, in the report’s second paragraph, Gallup says:

Aside from Bush, whites and blacks have similar perspectives on how various entities handled themselves in the Hurricane Katrina disaster

when that statement is directly contradicted by your findings of many important biracial differences not related to President Bush.

Examples I cited are:

Whites were more than twice as likely as blacks to have a negative opinion of New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin

Three-quarters of blacks (77%), compared to only 44% of whites, considered the post-hurricane looters to have been mostly desperate people trying to keep themselves alive.

Half of whites and only 16% of blacks (viewed the looters) as mostly criminals taking advantage of the situation.

I strongly agree with your statement:

Documenting the extent to which the racial-gap exists on specific issues -- particularly new ones as they arise -- continually adds to our understanding of race relations and the larger culture.

Why then did your headlines and lead paragraphs give no hint that your polling revealed such huge biracial differences as whites more than twice as likely as blacks to have an unfavorable opinion of Mayor Nagin and more than three times as likely as blacks to view the looters as criminals?

Given such findings how could you tell us that "(a)side from Bush, whites and blacks have similar perspectives on how various entities handled themselves in the Hurricane Katrina disaster?"

If you decide to answer my questions, I’ll publish your answers in full.

If you choose to leave matters as they are, I’ll regret that. While this second post is headed, "Gallup’s response raises serious doubts," I’d like to be able to publish a third post headed, "Gallup answers questions; removes doubts."

I plan to write Dr. Newport. I’ll copy to you.

Thank you for the courtesy of your reply.

Sincerely,

John
www.johnincarolina.com