Sunday, March 05, 2006

About that housing bubble.

The housing bubble?

I've been hearing about it all my life.

I remember the GIs just back from WW II who people said were foolishly using VA no money down mortgages to buy houses in Levittown that cost as much as $6,000.

Just wait. They'd all be foreclosed on in a few years when the housing bubble burst. Those poor vets.

And the people back then who bought oceanfront lots at Hilton Head for $5,000. You know what was going to happen to them.

In the early 80s, in the midst of the steepest recession since the Great Depression, we saw government backed mortgage rates go over 20% while home sales slowed dramatically. There were some price declines in certain markets.

Ah, the housing bubble had finally burst. The doomsters were happy. Oh, and remember they told us we'd never again see 30 year fixed-rate mortgages below 10%.

But the doomsters happiness was short lived. There was no housing bubble bursting then, anymore than there was a housing bubble burst after the Savings & Loan scandals of the late 80s.

On and on we could go.

Sure, be careful when you buy a house. There can be dips in the market. And if you buy in a neighborhood or area that's going bad economically or has a particularly high crime rate, you'll likely see your home's value drop.

But if you buy sensibly something you can afford; and live in the house for at least 5 years; you, like just about everyone else who's been doing that for the last 75 years, will do very well.

Housing is such a good investment that 2004 Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John Kerry and his wife own five of them; big ones, too.

And Kerry's vice-presidential running mate, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, and his wife own at least three houses; and they're big ones, too.

Now would guys like Kerry and Edwards, who develop economic policies and anti-programs for the rest of us, own all those big houses if they thought there was a housing bubble about to burst?

Of course not.

But would Democrats in office and MSM want us worried about a housing bubble so we might decide President Bush and the Republicans aren't doing a very good job?

I've got my answer. What's yours.

2 comments:

surfer-x said...

Excellent points on the housing situation, John. It's not often these days someone brings the long term perspective to the party.

Cheers.

http://bitterrenter.blogspot.com/

Anonymous said...

I guess it's the bubble that is causing such high ownership, especially among recent immigrants and minorities?

Darn Republicans and fiscal conservatives! (Not the same thing these days, unfortunately.)

-AC